News Summary
Population projections from the University of Virginia indicate significant growth in communities of the Historic Triangle and western Tidewater region. Notably, James City and New Kent counties are preparing for a surge in residents, with estimates suggesting New Kent will exceed 39,500 people by 2050, a 72% increase from 2020. The growth trend is mirrored in surrounding areas, while Charles City County is expected to see a decline. Local officials are taking proactive measures to address the challenges posed by this growth, particularly in education and infrastructure.
Williamsburg, Virginia – Population projections from the University of Virginia indicate that communities in the Historic Triangle and western Tidewater region are set to experience significant population growth over the next 25 years. This trend is particularly pronounced in James City and New Kent counties, where authorities are making proactive preparations to accommodate the influx of new residents.
By the year 2050, New Kent County is expected to see its population soar to more than 39,500, representing an increase of over 72% from the 22,945 residents counted in the 2020 census. Similarly, James City County’s population is projected to grow to nearly 112,500, a growth rate of 44% from its 2020 population of 78,254.
Growth forecasts for the surrounding areas are also noteworthy. York County’s population is anticipated to rise to more than 85,300, up from 70,045 in 2020, marking a 22% increase. Williamsburg is expected to grow to over 19,000 residents by 2050, reflecting a 23% increase from its 2020 figure of 15,425. King William County’s population is also slated for growth, with projections indicating it will reach nearly 23,800, an increase of more than 33% from its 2020 population of 17,810.
In contrast to this upward trend, Charles City County is projected to experience a decline, with expectations of losing 19% of its 2020 population by mid-century. This sharp contrast highlights the varied demographic trajectories within the state.
This substantial growth in the Historic Triangle and western Tidewater region aligns with similar predictions for Northern Virginia, a region also bracing for notable population increases. Residents moving to these areas are motivated by a mix of factors, including economic opportunities and the lifestyle advantages offered by rural settings. In King William County alone, an observed 25% increase in inspections and plan reviews indicates a rising trend, attributed in part to the remote work flexibility that has emerged due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Preparation for Growth
Local officials are responding to these forecasts with proactive measures. James City County is part of the Virginia Coalition of High Growth Communities, which focuses on managing the challenges of rapid population increases. This coalition has successfully advocated for changes to state legislation concerning developer proffer laws, which now allow developers more flexibility to address infrastructure requirements associated with new residents.
As the population grows, school systems in the area are also facing new demands. Forecasts indicate that expanding populations will lead to an increase in school-aged children in New Kent County, prompting officials to assess and plan for future educational capacities. In response to earlier overcrowding issues, New Kent County opened a third elementary school three years ago and is now aiming to expand middle and high school facilities to meet the needs of incoming families.
Conclusion
The anticipated growth in Virginia’s Historic Triangle and western Tidewater communities represents both opportunities and challenges. While many areas prepare to welcome new residents, the contrasting fate of regions like Charles City County emphasizes the importance of tailored strategies to ensure sustainable development. As these communities evolve, local authorities remain committed to planning effectively for the future.
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Additional Resources
- Daily Press: Population Booms in James City, New Kent
- Wikipedia: Demographics of Virginia
- East Idaho News: Growing Up in Pocatello’s Triangle Neighborhood
- Google Search: Population Growth in Virginia
- Virginia Business: Shoring Up
- Encyclopedia Britannica: Virginia Economy
Author: STAFF HERE WILLIAMSBURG WRITER
WILLIAMSBURG STAFF WRITER The WILLIAMSBURG STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HEREWilliamsburg.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in Williamsburg, James City County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the area—with deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as Williamsburg Farmers Market, Yorktown Market Days, and Busch Gardens Food & Wine Festival. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Greater Williamsburg Chamber of Commerce and Colonial Williamsburg Foundation, plus leading businesses in education and hospitality that power the local economy such as College of William & Mary, The Williamsburg Winery, and Sodexo. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREVirginiaBeach.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into Virginia's dynamic landscape.
