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Virginia Gubernatorial Race Tightens Between Spanberger and Earle-Sears

Voters expressing their democratic rights at a Virginia polling station.

News Summary

In the lead-up to Virginia’s gubernatorial election, former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger holds a narrow lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, according to a recent poll. Spanberger is at 42% support while Earle-Sears has 41%. Economic issues dominate voters’ concerns, with a significant number feeling dissatisfied with their financial situation. Spanberger’s fundraising success and demographic divides in support could influence the November 2025 election.

Virginia is heading into a tight gubernatorial race, with former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger (D) holding a slim lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R). According to a recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, Spanberger has 42% support compared to Earle-Sears’ 41%. The poll also reveals that 4% of voters are backing another candidate, while 13% remain undecided.

The survey results indicate clear demographic divides in voter preferences. Earle-Sears has secured strong backing from male voters, achieving 52% compared to Spanberger’s 37%. Additionally, Earle-Sears holds a considerable lead among white voters, receiving support from 50% compared to Spanberger’s 35%. Conversely, Spanberger outperforms Earle-Sears among female voters, older voters over 70, and those under 30, capturing 47%, 46%, and 43% support in those groups, respectively.

Currently, Spanberger and Earle-Sears are the only declared candidates from their parties for the upcoming election, slated for November 4, 2025. Earle-Sears appears set to secure the Republican nomination, bolstered by endorsements from prominent figures such as Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Attorney General Jason Miyares. Meanwhile, Spanberger’s entry into the race could potentially draw in other Democratic contenders, notably U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, who has expressed interest in running. Former Republican Rep. Denver Riggleman is also mulling a possible bid as an independent candidate.

The Emerson College Poll, conducted between January 6-8, surveyed 1,000 registered Virginia voters, with a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points. The poll indicates a rising economic dissatisfaction among voters. A majority, 51%, feel their financial situation has worsened over the last four years, while only 27% believe it has improved. Despite this economic discontent, approximately 56% of respondents who feel financially worse off believe that Virginia is on the right track, coinciding with the favorable rating of 56% for Gov. Youngkin. His overall approval rating stands at 48%, with a 35% unfavorable response.

In contrast, Spanberger holds a favorable rating of 38%, with 21% expressing an unfavorable view and 24% neutral. Earle-Sears’ favorability is slightly lower at 33%, with 22% unfavorable and 27% neutral. Voter opinions on national figures are divided; Donald Trump has a 47% favorability rating while Joe Biden draws 43%, with their unfavorable ratings at 47% and 50%, respectively.

Economic concerns dominate the priorities of Virginia voters, with 38% identifying it as the top issue, followed by housing affordability (14%), healthcare (10%), education (8%), and threats to democracy (8%). Additionally, climate change is viewed as a contributing factor to recent heavy snowstorms, according to 56% of voters.

Virginia’s gubernatorial election has unique characteristics; candidates must gather at least 10,000 signatures to qualify for the ballot, with a requirement of at least 400 signatures from each of the 11 congressional districts. Virginia is also noted for its prohibition against governors serving consecutive terms.

Fundraising efforts have proven significant, with Spanberger raising $6.7 million in the first quarter of 2025—the highest among statewide candidates during that period. Earle-Sears reported a $3.1 million haul, marking it as the largest for a GOP gubernatorial candidate without self-funding.